The current serious crisis in the Middle East began in the night of June 27/28 with the kidnapping of an Israeli soldier; in the subscriber area the huge event risk in June was a topic more than once, e.g. an update on May 18 warned (precious metals page): "Still the event risk is very high in June 2006, especially around 6/19 which is probably the most dangerous date 2004-8 (perhaps there is a comparable date in 2007)." So "the most dangerous date 2004-8" did in fact trigger - with a minor delay (the usual window of the Amanita time lines is +/- some days) - sharp moves: the stock markets plunged while commodities soared. If events do have a measurable impact on the exchanges, then it's usually bearish for equities and bullish for commodities, especially gold and oil.

As a matter of fact, there are only 2 types of event risk influencing the markets:

1. man-made (political)

2. natural disastersIn the past 8 years we only witnessed 4 major events, 2 political in nature: 9/11 (2001), Iraq war (2003); Tsunami in SE Asia (2004), Katrina (2005). The current escalation looks like the 5th event in this series as it seems to be the most important development on the geopolitical level since 2003. It has been forecasted for a long time that the 1st half of 2006 would not produce anything outside the norm but by mid-2006 the course of the world would change, with the recent development in Israel and the Arabic world giving a clue what to expect. The tensions and especially a possible Iran war are expected to have a major impact on the markets and are thus in the center of interest of this article.

Analysis

First on the - pretended - official background of the Iran conflict, the Israeli military historian Martin van Creveld offers some valuable insights (link):

For a full 15 years secret services have warned that Iran could build the atomic bomb within 3-5 years. 15 years - and every time the same estimate. Why always 3-5 years? These numbers have got absolutely nothing to do with Iran but only with US domestic politics. The term of a US president lasts 4 years. So 3 years are minimum for a president to allow him to react while 5 years is already beyond the term that's why it's irrelevant. If the secret services are publishing something they are usually motivated by ulterior motives. I really do recommend to interpret this type of information with a healthy dose of skepticism.

The public is again deluded and taken for a fool similar to the Iraq war. Not only that there is absolutely no evidence whatsoever for the claimed plans and capabilities to build the bomb but we do know that even under best circumstances this project would take at least a decade or longer. Moreover, the US were the driving force behind the armament of Iran (again the same story as with Iraq). The brainwashed mass-media of the Western world are turning the statements of key players upside down in order to support their propaganda (link 1, link 2, link 3, link 4, link5, link6). While Iran has *never* attacked another country in modern history the US have started dozens of wars since the 20th century, explaining why the public opinion in most countries around the globe is viewing the US as by far the biggest threat to world peace (2nd being Israel).

The real motives are quite obvious: first, to control the Middle East territory. Bahman Nirumand stated in his book "Iran: the impending catastrophe" (link):

I think that the US want the full control over the region as it contains 60% of the oil and gas fields of the world. And the region is from a political and military perspective very important. And so far there are still two gaps left: Syria and Iran. These voids have to be filled.

Likewise many have recognized that US empire can only exist as long as other states are ready to deliver their goods against worthless green paper. And that only works as long as the dollar is the unchallenged world's reserve currency which depends a lot on the currency in which the most important commodity (oil) is traded (link 1, link 2, link 3, link 4, link 5, link 6). In November 2000 Saddam Hussein decided to sell his oil in euros instead of dollars, "accidentally" the euro reached its all-time low almost within days and the dollar crashed against the euro by 14% within weeks (which is huge in the low-volatile currency markets). US congressman Ron Paul explains:

In November 2000 Saddam Hussein demanded Euros for his oil. His arrogance was a threat to the dollar; his lack of any military might was never a threat. At the first cabinet meeting with the new administration in 2001, as reported by Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill, the major topic was how we would get rid of Saddam Hussein-- though there was no evidence whatsoever he posed a threat to us. [...] In 2001, Venezuela’s ambassador to Russia spoke of Venezuela switching to the Euro for all their oil sales. Within a year there was a coup attempt against Chavez, reportedly with assistance from our CIA.

What was unthinkable for a long time has suddenly become reality: a couple of key countries want to start selling oil in other currencies than USD, this peripety is quite dramatic because it starts the end of the US empire (link 1, link 2).

However, there is another reason almost always overlooked: Peak Oil. "Peak oil" is referring to the theory of the geologist Hubbert that the oil production of fields, regions, countries and even the entire planet has the shape of a bell curve (x-axis = time; y-axis = production) with the global production being very close to the peak of the curve (it may already be past, too). After the peak the production irrepealably (!) declines for decades (link). In the years after the peak prices of $500/ barrel (or much more) should be expected. Understandably, the oil-men that control the US government have no interest in letting the full story out but are instead sweeping it under the rug.

In the case of an Iran war this country would be blamed for the exploding oil prices as it could and probably will reduce its oil exports and block the only 60km broad Street of Hormuz (20% of the global oil production). Perhaps the other Arabic states or Venezuela are joining an oil embargo, reviving the situation of the 70ies prior to the oil shock. If the crisis is over everyone has got used to an extremely high almost unthinkable oil price...

Prognosis

The latter argument also allows a fine-tuning of the apparently inevitable breakout of the war, it "must" be started as a red herring when the oil price is attempting to go through the roof (to $100+). This thought leads back from the analysis to the prognosis where I'd like to start with a rather unconventional source, the palm-leaf libraries in India, with its prophecies composed more than 5,000 years ago. Thomas Ritter had some very interesting translations done and published in a book (link):

In the 6th month of the year 2005 a man surprisingly comes to power in Persia [Mahmud Ahmadinejad was elected in June 2005]. This man is a sage politician who is able to prevent the US attack already taking place in 2005. The leader of the USA postpones the attack to the next year [= 2006].

One has to thank Mahmud Ahmadinejad for his clear and true words on world politics while at the same time most politicians are betraying the interests of their electorate every day. Not surprising, Ahmadinejad is labeled as "sage" in the 5,000 year old texts. The official annal-writing of the 20th century is very biased as it was written by the winners of the World Wars, in Austria and some other countries you run the risk of being cast into prison if you are questioning these Big Brother stories.

So much is just 180° upside, the committers are seen as victims and vice versa. GeorgeOrwell created slogans in his famous book "1984" that describe our situation today: WAR IS PEACE, FREEDOM IS SLAVERY, IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH. However, from 2012 on the US are falling back to the level of a developing country which will push the 24/7 brainwashing (as an instrument of psychological warfare) markedly back. And Germany that has been occupied, against all international laws, for 61 years ("occupation is protection" in Orwell terminology) will eventually be freed.

A NATO cycle of 4 years has always caused a major operation of NATO states since 1991 (the exact cycle length is presumably somewhat longer than 4 years if we consider the research of Edward Dewey): 1/1991: NATO states attack Iraq 12/1995: IFOR (NATO's Peace Implementation Force ) in Bosnia-Herzegowina 3/1999: NATO states attack Yugoslavia 3/2003: NATO states attack Iraq ca. 3/2007 +/- some months: NATO states attack Iran?

The standard horoscope for Iran is the revolution: April 1, 1979, 15:00 IRT/S, Teheran, this is the chart (reference: Nick Campion): The ascendant (AC) is in the proud and dominant sign Leo (the Iran as a dominating regional power with "higher ambitions"), the sun dispositing the Leo-AC is in the 9th (philosophy, religion) house in Aries (aggression) and only forms an opposition (180°) to Pluto (= aggressive fundamentalism) with no other angle (of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th harmonic), such a duet between 2 planets reinforces their connection because of the lack of other connections.

The strongest planets in the horoscope are Neptune (oil, religion) and Mars (aggression, war). Uranus as the planet of change and innovation is weakest: the country is very conservative and rather backward, with little technology and social change.

I am now applying the so-called astro-cartography method developed by Jim Lewis that allows to find the place where certain qualities of time are likely to manifest. The solar eclipse 3/29/06 at 8°35 Aries (solar eclipses are the strongest factor in mundane astrology) had the Saturn/AC line exactly over the Arabic countries. Such a Saturn activation is bearish, hardly surprising the Middle East bourses were hit hardest during the general stock market decline May-June 2006. The most exact hit was the Saudi capital Riyadh that collapsed by more than 50%.

The topic of the Iran conflict is primarily Pluto signifying nukes and oil, and also Neptune (oil), Mars (violence, war), and Saturn (problems and tensions). Pluto was discovered in 1930 when the Fascist movement became dominant and we had the first mass propaganda started by the Nazis soon thereafter, and also the atomic bomb was developed at that time.

The lunar eclipse 9/7/06 is extra-ordinary since Neptune-MC and Saturn-IC are exactly crossing the Iranian capital which is quite important.

Moreover, the annual solar eclipse 9/22/06 at 29°20 Virgo has Mars-AC running over Brainwashington which is a sign of US aggression in late 2006 - early 2007. It's interesting that the lunar eclipse 11/20/02 preceding the Iraq invasion had the Mars/IC line on a similar spot, again a sign of aggression.

Even more dramatic is the solar eclipse 3/19/07 (28°07 Pisces) squaring Pluto conjunct the Galactic Center and Sun/AC, Moon/AC and Pluto/MC precisely over Tehran, and also Uranus/AC on Iranian soil. The tension angle of Sun and Pluto is at the same time dominant in the chart of the Iran, and this configuration awakes the Plutonian energy.

It's impossible to discuss all the other methods taken into consideration (solar & lunar return charts, progressions/ regressions, transits, cardinal ingresses and so on) so I'd like to present only the results: the 6 months from September 2006 on are very dangerous for an (Iran) war to break out; especially September-October 2006 and March 2007, with a remote possibility for July 2007. As this topic has only been researched superficially it's not possible to be more precise. At any rate, this topic should remain "hot" at least through March 2007 and more likely into July 2007, and during this time cause some erratic spikes in the markets. March 2007 is important for other reasons, too.

An escalation would with near-certainty entail an oil price beyond the $100 level, more towards $150-$200, but this is only the first wave to $500-$1000/ barrel. Hard to imagine there won't be serious consequences for the world economy and the financial system (though delayed). Still, one should not forget that the political crisis is only the trigger for this unprecedented oil bull market, the cause is peak oil. I assume that the peace maximum/ war minimum was reached in June 2006 and from that time on the warlike activity is increasing until approximately 2020 (!), more on that in a separate article (that is maybe first or exclusively published in the protected area).