Free Market Commentary 8/18/07:
Turbulences in the financial markets, what are the
stars saying?
The
past weeks were characterized by serious turbulences in the financial markets
(first
in the stock markets and then also in precious metals,
particularly silver) and when you
listen to the news, you can't avoid the
impression that a lot of people expect "the end of
the (financial)
world" soon because a crash of the system is
repeatedly discussed. In
this free market commentary I'd like to address the
burning question what to expect for
the future from the perspective of astrology, fundamental
analysis and conspiracy
theories.
First
I'd like to answer a question asked a couple of times recently, namely if
this
development came as a
surprise or was forecast. Below please find the 2007-8
prognosis chart for the benchmark index S&P 500
(SPX) published in December 2006,
both the 2 scenarios (red lines) and the actual SPX
closing prices (black line) end in
August
(the original prognosis chart runs through the end of 08 but was cut off here).
The more
bullish of the 2 scenarios based on the assumption that the hyperinflationary
pressure continues to build up has so far been
tracked very well, actually almost 100%.
Both
scenarios agreed on the 2 major time lines for key bottoms in 2007: the more
important of the two is now in late summer 07 (was
adjusted recently) and the somewhat
weaker one was March 2007. Needless to say, the
annual lows so far were set in March
but the SPX did re-test yesterday (lows at 1371 and 1364
respectively), and the summer
decline has been considerably sharper (and
longer, too). For the Amanita forecasts,
timing is always more important than prices
because prices can be easily manipulated
while timing is rather "immune". In a nutshell,
over the past 8 months (since December
06) we have an almost perfect fit with the scenario (which of
course doesn't mean it has
to go on like that; past performance is not necessarily
indicative of future success).
The astrological side
Already
a few months ago I warned that July (especially before and around the
stationary-retrograde
Venus on 7/27/07) would be quite dangerous. Which other factors
than Venus were responsible? On 7/23/07 Uranus, the planet
of volatility and of sudden
turbulences, was squaring (angle of 90°) the center of mass (CM; barycenter)
of the
solar system,
7/24/07 was the 1st big down-day in the indices. The barycenter
is
always either very close to the surface of the
sun or even below, which depends on the
position of the heavy planets, above all Jupiter
that is heavier than all other planets
combined. According to my research, the CM is a
very important point that should be
taken into consideration. I suspect it is the "navel"
of the solar system and plays a
major role in converting the energy from the Galactic Center (GC).
While
the connection of Uranus to the navel of the solar system and the direction
change of Venus triggered the crisis exactly
(timing), the topic was set by the aspects of
Saturn to Neptune and Pluto. From
August 2006 through mid-2007 we had a triple
opposition (angle of 180°) of Saturn and Neptune,
the "hard" aspects of the 4th
harmonic (0°, 90°, 180°) occur only once every
8-10 years. Saturn is the classic
"malefic" and bear planet, everything it touches is
reduced to the core in the best case,
in the worst case it means problems, serious setbacks
and heavy losses.
(named after the sea-god) on the other hand is the symbol for
liquidity and all illusory
developments and therefore it also rules
(liquidity-driven) bubbles in the financial
markets. That's why the hard transits are THE
"bubble-killer":
• The
passage 2006/7 made the real estate bubble burst (temporarily,
the
advances in oil and precious metals were capped,
too, although these markets do
in my opinion not fulfill the
definition of a bubble).
• The
passage 1998-99 (within orb until early 2000) did not only terminate the
"new economy" stock bubble but also the Asian
bubble, perhaps one can
include the bond bubble, too (the 30-year US
treasuries set their all-time high in
late 1998 - although it's questionable if this was a
bubble).
• The
passage 1989 (within orb until early 1990) killed the real estate and
stock
market bubble in
• The
passage 1979/80 saw the commodity bubble (especially oil,
precious
metals) burst, gold and silver haven't exceeded
the January 1980 tops so far.
• The
passage 1972/73 marked the end of the stocks bubble, 1973-74 was
the
most devastating bear market in the 2nd half of the 20th
century.
This
list ends in 1972 because in the decades before 1972 we had no series of
bubbles
- why? In 1971 Richard Nixon closed the gold window,
since that time the world suffers
from a fiat money system, Bretton
Woods was still at least a kind of a "half" gold
standard that kept the currency system rather
stable and inflation low. But since 1971
we have experienced a world-wide inflation like never
(!) before in history, the
permanent expansion of liquidity and credit creates
one bubble after the other - which, of
course, have to burst sooner or later. All fiat
money experiments in history ended with
the fiat currency returning to its inner value (= zero),
i.e. a total loss of purchasing power.
Frankly,
I don't see a reason why it should be different this time - and I don't expect
this
will happen "some time in the 21st century" but
rather soon...
The Saturn-Neptune
topic was triggered the last time on 7/17/07 (a contra-parallel in
the declination). Early August (8/4-6) was interesting
because of the trines (aspect
120°)
of Saturn and Pluto both from the perspective of earth (=
geocentric) and the sun
(=
heliocentric). The major financial angles (0°, 90°, 120°, 180°) of Saturn to
the outer
planets Uranus, Neptune and Pluto are all
critical, even though the "malefic" Pluto
stands out, among other things it also
represents debt and borrowed capital (and thus
papers like MBS, CDOs).
The aspects between slow planets may form either in a triple
or a single passage, single passages - like the one in
August 2007 - are unloading their
energy faster and much more abrupt. Moreover,
this Saturn-Pluto aspect was reinforced
because the heliocentric and geocentric aspect
date aligned (just 2 days apart).
On an
even higher level, Pluto (= debt, destruction) is currently strengthened
a lot
because it's passing over the
cycle of paramount importance was mentioned the 1st time
several years ago, among
other things it was a factor why in April 2001 very timely
a gold bull market at least
through 2006-7 was proclaimed (link). So the
Saturn-Pluto connection triggered this
cycle of 250 years which means that events should happen
that are beyond the
personal experience of anyone living today (and
that are therefore hardly expected by
anyone). If we go beyond the year 2007 even
longer cycles are activated, the longest
based on the precession of the earth axis is 26,000
years...
Already
in 2005 it was forecast that around late 2007 the Jupiter-Pluto depression
cycle would
be due (because of the conjunction of Jupiter and Pluto, see
http://www.amanita.at/e/reading/05/e-0512-juplu-dep.htm for the
article). Since the 19th
century this signature has without exception at
least indicated a very serious recession
and often a full depression. The recent development in
the real estate market (the very
last sector that did hold the
economic downturn soon. This should mark the
beginning of the deepest crisis in the
history of capitalism that culminates in a
hyperinflationary explosion and destroys the
system as we know it.
Without
doubt, the past weeks were astrologically the "hottest" of the entire
year 2007,
but now we have more or less arrived at the end of the
danger window. The minimum
window of influence for the critical
constellations described above (the last one Saturn
trine Pluto on the 6th of August) is about +/- 1 week (=
about 1 standard deviation in
statistical terms), the maximum orb (= 2 standard
deviations) is about +/- 2 weeks. Thus
the situation should calm down the next weeks, although
the trade horoscope does not
allow to take a position here (described in the protected
area).
However,
the situation could be boiling again around December 11, 2007, when
Jupiter
meets Pluto (conjunction 0°) which again triggers the 250-year
Pluto cycle. So
the current situation may find a kind of a resumption in
December. And beyond 2007?
Compared
to 2007, the years 2008-9 are less critical and eventful but we are
approaching stormy times afterwards in the new decade
starting in 2010.
Fundamental analysis and conspiracy theories
Financial
astrology is a taboo in the professional financial world, as a financial
Financial
astrology is a taboo in the professional financial world, as a financial
astrologer
you are often not taken too seriously, while this entails
some drawbacks one enjoys also
a huge advantage: freedom of the mind.
Unfortunately, too critical or "heretical"
statements will almost inevitably terminate the
career of financial professionals
employed by institutions, so you are rather
limited in your desire to understand the "true
essence of the (financial) world". Luckily,
as a financial astrologer you don't need to care
about that as you already stand out like a sore thumb. :-)
Example:
an Amanita subscriber was working as a broker for a large bank when shortly
after 9/11 he just asked the question (!) in a newspaper
interview who had bought the
vast amounts of airline puts. Within hours he was fired
because of his "outrageous"
statement and couldn't find a job for the same
reason... In spite of the massive efforts to
cloud the truth the latest polls show that the majority of
the citizens in Western states do
know that 9/11 was an inside job. Another example: the
boss of a middle-sized
European
bank planned to fly to the
circles that he should avoid that... Another
customer (an entrepreneur) deletes the
"dangerous" Amanita mails immediately because of his
fear it could be found on this
PC...
So you
better take care ;-), the following "dangerous" thoughts are
in my opinion the
key to understand what's going on in the world, in spite
- or because! - of the fact that
they are almost completely missing in the mainstream
financial publications (although
some colleagues are giving subtle hints now and then that
reveal that they are
informed). 99% and perhaps even 99.9% of the
market participants have no (sufficient)
understanding of these things but I do hope that these
explanations make your mouth
water and you look for more information. After initial skepticism I needed several years
of intense study of the subject until I had at least a
basic understanding of the
coherencies and I started to (fully) apply that
knowledge in 2006. Now I am trying to
convey the message to the best of my knowledge
and belief. Naturally, because of the
complexity it's not possible to give a full
explanation, a short introduction would require
at least hundreds of pages.
In
politics, nothing happens by accident.
If it
happens, you can bet it was planned that way.
(Franklin
Roosevelt, US president)
I am
convinced that there is a very powerful group of individuals (resp. families) that pull
the strings behind the scenes, they have a large
influence on the global political and
economic decisions, and partly even on the
scientific and spiritual world. This group has
access to occult knowledge and rituals thousands
of years old (going back to the
Ancient
call themselves the "illuminati"
which stresses their occult-spiritual background
(illuminati means the
"enlightened" in Latin). There exists an inner ("esoteric")
and an
outer ("exoteric") circle within the illuminati, the latter includes persons that are only
temporarily involved. The most important exoteric
organization are the Bilderberger.
The illuminati have one major goal: to create a New World
Order (NWO) with a oneworld
currency and a totalitarian world government
(dictatorship), similar to what George
Orwell
described in "1984". To create a new world it's most effective to
destroy the
existing world and to create a huge chaos: the
motto of freemasonry is "ordo ab chao",
i.e. order out of chaos. To achieve the NWO goals
(so-to-say "world domination, slavery
&
tyranny") they accept all kinds of sacrifices, including the death of
millions of people.
Some
examples: "accidentally" George Bush mentioned the "new world order"
the 1st
time on September 11, 1990, precisely 11 years before
9/11... (the number 11 plays a
role in the occult-numerological system of the illuminati). We see the 9/11 signature
repeatedly high-lighting key events, either as a
date or as a time distance of 911 days,
so the 9/11 signature is the foot print of the
NWO plans. About 911 days prior to the
Bush
statement the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) was founded by Ronald Reagan in
March 1988, and again 911 days earlier in September 1985 the Plaza
agreement was
signed, probably the most important decision for
the financial structure in the 1980s. In
March
2004, circa 911 days after 9/11, the world was shocked by the first "echo
terror
attacks" in
the first two are already history but the 3rd and final
one is planned between the
Western and the Islamic world. 9/11 as an
inside job planned on the highest geopolitical
level was a key event in the illuminati
plans in order to push on with WW3 and the global
dictatorship (civil rights abolished, total mind
control, population control and so on).
The creation
of the Fed in 1913 was one of the first mile-stones of the illuminati
(private money in the hand of bankers) to gain more control
over the financial world. A
congressman who rightly criticized the Fed as
"unconstitutional" soon thereafter became
the victim of 2 attempted murders which he survived,
unfortunately he died from the 3rd
assault... A pure fiat money system has always
resulted in a huge mess in history which
is good for the illuminati
because the larger the chaos the better the odds of
implementing the NWO project. However, the biggest and
thus most "favorable" chaos is
not created by a war (barring a nuclear mass-destruction)
but by a hyperinflation, at
least that's what the writers of history all agree on. So a
hyperinflation is presumably
even more important than another word war to create the
NWO.
Therefore
the very fragile financial system especially since 1971 is by no means a
"coincidence" but a predetermined breaking point.
The entire financial system has
been converted into a liquidity junkie. As always, one has
to ask "cui bono?" - who
profits? It goes without saying that this
liquidity addiction is mainly vesting the central
banks with a lot of power; if we had a real (backed)
currency system, their influence
would be much smaller. I fully agree with the Austrian
School of Economics that is in
my opinion the only ray of hope in a world dominated by
stupid or even crazy economic
theories, to quote Ludwig van Mises:
An
increase in the quantity of money or fiduciary media is an indispensable
condition of
the emergence of a
boom. The recurrence of boom periods, followed by periods of
depression, is the
unavoidable outcome of repeated attempts to lower the gross market
rate of interest by
means of credit expansion. There is no means of avoiding the final
collapse of a boom
brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether
the crisis should
come sooner as a result of voluntary abandonment of further credit
expansion, or later as a
final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.
So in
my opinion it would be best to allow the system to collapse immediately in
order to
avoid an even bigger crisis in the future, but the illuminati plans are obviously just the
opposite. It appears that it's premature to pull
the predetermined breaking point out of
the hat (for several reasons that can't be explained
here). The only way to postpone the
crash is in my opinion to distribute more of the drug
"liquidity" which further boosts the
hyperinflationary tendencies. The ECB has repeatedly
intervened in the open market
and pumped hundreds of billions into the system, the 1st
intervention since 9/11. The
Japanese
central bank has also injected 1 trillion yen and the Fed has even bought MBS
securities - which would not be allowed by the
statutes (link). It's no surprise to see that
the re-constructed US M3 annual growth has soared to +14%
(!!!) and thus to almost the
highest level in history (even higher than in the
early 1980ies) as the chart from
http://www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html
shows:
The
turmoil of the recent weeks did favor the so-called "safe
haven" government
bonds - which
is a joke. For whatever reason, the accounting of states is more or less
on a cash basis, a practice normally reserved for very
small companies while every
normal larger organization has to follow the
rules of double entry bookkeeping and thus
has makes provisions for promised future payments (mainly
in the social sector in the
case of states). It appears that the states that are
setting the rules don't need to follow
them? The excellent analyst John Williams already wrote in
2005 that applying GAAP
standards to the
GDP -
which is about 20 times the official value - and total debt was a terrible
409% of
the GDP (http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs/article/id=596,
http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs/article/id=342).
So the appropriate rating would
definitely not be the ridiculous AAA but rather C-
which is just above default... In the past
2
years the situation has presumably again deteriorated, so you can be sure that
the
annual deficit is now higher then the GDP, and
total debt has skyrocketed, too. The
events of the past weeks are a good model how
the
by a vast number of defaults of private persons,
companies & other states): until a few
weeks (or months at most) before bankruptcy is declared the
(perhaps even AAA), then the situation changes at light speed
so that 99% of the
citizens won't be prepared (which, of course, is
the NWO aim).
The
only (immediate) danger for the financial system is in my opinion that
the
illuminati plans
fail, which would be very bad on a short-term basis but very good for the
rest of our life: while they are very powerful they are in
no case almighty. The EU
constitution as a central illuminati
project to weaken civil rights and to abolish the
sovereignty of the member states was stalled in 2005,
it's the most up-to-date example
of ongoing problems. And second, the plan that
successful either. One of the signs documenting the
key importance of
that for the first time in history in 2007 the annual
secret Bilderberg meeting took place in
And
last but not least one should not forget that the ongoing fiat money experiment
is
unique in history and absolutely no one (not
even the illuminati) exert a 100% control
over the system. The danger remains real, especially since
in
ticks in (Pluto at the Galactic center)
that could play havoc with these plans, I estimate
the odds that the hyperinflation plan fails as high as
P=20%. As always, the ongoing
developments (and hidden signs) have to monitored
closely and one should be ready to
adapt quickly and let
go of all preconceived opinions.